Saturday, June 25, 2016

As usual kids are why we can't have nice things.

I don't pretend to even have a functional grasp of Brexit and what it might mean for the world except that it probably doesn't mean chaos for the world.  But what I do know is that again, failing to vote has confounded expectations and messed things up.

In polls prior to Brexit the prediction was that "Remain" would win, and polls also showed that young people by a strong majority favored "Remain."  It was the oldsters who wanted to leave the EU.  As we now know, "Leave" won and it seems that kids staying home and listening to their record albums or playing action figures or whatever determined the result.  Overall less than 60% of young people in Britain voted in the referendum. (Source) Voter turnout in the 40s and up was as high as 80%. It seems pretty obvious that there was an direct relationship between "Remain" and "Youth," and an inverse relationship between "Youth" and "Actually Going To Vote."

Education was the second-best predictor of how people would vote, as generally speaking the less education a person had the more he or she was likely to vote to Leave. It's not immediately clear whether there was any correlation between level of education and likelihood of voting.

Consider that trend here in America, where we get nowhere near the 70+% turnout Brexit had. Here are some statistics:

The less educated someone is the more likely they are to support Donald Trump.

Hillary! has double-digit leads among voters under 40, but that lead narrows to six percent among middle-aged adults.

And Trump leads among senior citizens.

Polls right now show Hillary winning. Polls showed Brexit voting "Remain" right up until "Leave" won.

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